User Numbers aren't all they seem.

[squintz]

Looked at cpps.me and they shout "millions of users"!
However the latest stats tell a different story. But it seems all online games throw this number around and it's deceiving on the surface as normal people think without really thinking deeper that "wow, must be thousands on all the time"
Not even close. I believe this 'user' number is either unintentionally or intentionally deceptively used. This same total user number is also flaunted on just about every forum site, specially financial ones. All to sell something.

Not all is as it seems. Even instaspam enfluencers are trying to be honest. lol, that'll last about 2 weeks.

Even Tlopo, which has an average of almost 200 users daily many times, whereas I would cut that number at least 50% subtracting all the multi accounts and alts in game and the 100 number still beats 57 any given day.

Millions of cpps users, only 57 was total on line at one time. And only 3445 active last 30 days. So, looking at that logic, it would take a different 3445 user group every per month with no repeats only 58 years to come online. Was it even 3445 different and unique users?
Really?

cpps.me stats.
Stats generated: 0 (Days ago)
Total users: 2425565
Active users: 3445 (Login within past 30 days)
Users Online: 11 (Right now)
Most Online: 57 (MAX Simultaneous Users)
Max Reached: 233.9 (Days ago)
DB Lag: 0 (Days ago)

 

[Bart Gunshot]

Yeah, active users is always a better measurement of how healthy a userbase is. I'm surprised that they even disclose that. I'd say that in general only 2-3% of an active user-base is alternate accounts so its fairly accurate. Total users is still a useful stat, being the total impact and reach the service has had over it's lifetime. Of course any service is going to market themselves with their most impressive statistic.

 

[squintz]

Yeah, active users is always a better measurement of how healthy a userbase is. I'm surprised that they even disclose that. I'd say that in general only 2-3% of an active user-base is alternate accounts so its fairly accurate. Total users is still a useful stat, being the total impact and reach the service has had over it's lifetime. Of course any service is going to market themselves with their most impressive statistic.

Well, in regards to my issues with a users number, I'll put it in simple math which is just about what I'm capable of, here's what I think is a correct run down:

2,425,572 users (roughly 8 years total 2,920 days.) since 2011
These are the numbers, give or take a few thousands and random times to accomplish that user base.
@> 831 sign ups per day
@> 5,814 sign ups per week
@> 23,258 sign ups per month
@> 279,106.9 per year.

Is my math wrong?

Does this even sound remotely possible? That's straight figures, and not messing with the bizarre internet compounding theory. Can Tlopo boast this number? Should Tlopo even try to boast something like this?

Of course, cpps does not define what a user constitutes.

I also believe an alternate account user base is magnitudes higher than your estimate. But that's my unscientific opinion on that.

 

[Edward Stormbreaker]

Reminds me of Wizard101, whose devs claim to have over 100 million players. Yet, getting a team of so little as 3-4 people for a dungeon (even via the auto Team-Up feature) is a waste of time some afternoons. Something doesn't add up.

 

[Bart Gunshot]

Well, in regards to my issues with a users number, I'll put it in simple math which is just about what I'm capable of, here's what I think is a correct run down:

2,425,572 users (roughly 8 years total 2,920 days.) since 2011
These are the numbers, give or take a few thousands and random times to accomplish that user base.
@> 831 sign ups per day
@> 5,814 sign ups per week
@> 23,258 sign ups per month
@> 279,106.9 per year.

Is my math wrong?

Does this even sound remotely possible? That's straight figures, and not messing with the bizarre internet compounding theory. Can Tlopo boast this number? Should Tlopo even try to boast something like this?

Of course, cpps does not define what a user constitutes.

I also believe an alternate account user base is magnitudes higher than your estimate. But that's my unscientific opinion on that.

TLOPO has said a few times to have roughly a quarter of a million registered users as of 2019. TLOPO has been out since 2015 roughly. 4-5 years, and it too had a rapid period of growth when the Beta launched. POTCO has always been a much less popular game than Toontown or Club Penguin. CPPS is also the longest surviving (and at one point the most popular) Club Penguin private server, having been around even when Club Penguin was still around. So I can see how the numbers could be accurate. I imagine during it's golden age sign ups were in the thousands per day, not too dissimilar to TLOPO having a rapid period of sign ups.

My alternate account userbase estimate is also unscientific, but based on the fact that most players are casual players. In times of low player counts you may see more alternate accounts as the number of casual players is lower, but it's still fairly low from my guesstimates. There's also no foolproof way of measuring this. You could look at duplicate IPs however this would discount players whom have multiple players per household, as well as people who share accounts at somepoint.

 

[Stephen Teague]

TLOPO has said a few times to have roughly a quarter of a million registered users as of 2019.

226,164 users registered as I write this post, which obviously doesn't reflect how active the community is, as the average is around 320-350 players on during the "busiest" times (barring a new content release). Speaking from experience from playing both TLOPO and Wizard101, registered users is a misleading statistic for both. It holds some weight, but it obviously doesn't speak to daily activity for a particular game, as many of you mentioned.

 

[squintz]

TLOPO has said a few times to have roughly a quarter of a million registered users as of 2019. TLOPO has been out since 2015 roughly. 4-5 years, and it too had a rapid period of growth when the Beta launched. POTCO has always been a much less popular game than Toontown or Club Penguin. CPPS is also the longest surviving (and at one point the most popular) Club Penguin private server, having been around even when Club Penguin was still around. So I can see how the numbers could be accurate. I imagine during it's golden age sign ups were in the thousands per day, not too dissimilar to TLOPO having a rapid period of sign ups.

My alternate account userbase estimate is also unscientific, but based on the fact that most players are casual players. In times of low player counts you may see more alternate accounts as the number of casual players is lower, but it's still fairly low from my guesstimates. There's also no foolproof way of measuring this. You could look at duplicate IPs however this would discount players whom have multiple players per household, as well as people who share accounts at somepoint.

The numbers seriously can't be accurate. Why? Because my figures are assuming 1000 a day, 7,000 a week and 20, something thousand a month every single day -week -month for 8 years without let up to reach the total claimed. Was there gaps. Probably, but the idea that it slowed down to a trickle then suddenly 100K decided to sign up in two months here and there is also unrealistic to me.

And what constitutes a registered user? Someone who signed up and didn't do a thing? Signed up and decided they didn't even want to download the game? They're still users? If you agree to download then don't download, are they counted as a user? So, how many of these thousands are people who downloaded but never went beyond a download are listed as users? I've downloaded a ton of demos and by the time I was going to install them, I found stuff out that saved me the trouble and uninstalled them. Did I get counted as a user with these games? If so, then it's just padding your numbers. And i don't recall, but did we have to register in some way before downloading Tlopo?

In cpps, do they require an account before you download? I didn't check, and have zero interest in that game.

Tlopo claims to have 226,000 users in 5 years, yet I've been here almost 3 and probably have seen the same group of people in game and forums that number less than 50.

It reminds me of instaspam and twit and people buying likes and follows. To look more important and pad their enfluencer numbers.

 

[Bart Gunshot]

The numbers seriously can't be accurate. Why? Because my figures are assuming 1000 a day, 7,000 a week and 20, something thousand a month every single day -week -month for 8 years without let up to reach the total claimed. Was there gaps. Probably, but the idea that it slowed down to a trickle then suddenly 100K decided to sign up in two months here and there is also unrealistic to me.

And what constitutes a registered user? Someone who signed up and didn't do a thing? Signed up and decided they didn't even want to download the game? They're still users? If you agree to download then don't download, are they counted as a user? So, how many of these thousands are people who downloaded but never went beyond a download are listed as users? I've downloaded a ton of demos and by the time I was going to install them, I found stuff out that saved me the trouble and uninstalled them. Did I get counted as a user with these games? If so, then it's just padding your numbers. And i don't recall, but did we have to register in some way before downloading Tlopo?

In cpps, do they require an account before you download? I didn't check, and have zero interest in that game.

Tlopo claims to have 226,000 users in 5 years, yet I've been here almost 3 and probably have seen the same group of people in game and forums that number less than 50.

It reminds me of instaspam and twit and people buying likes and follows. To look more important and pad their enfluencer numbers.

I mean it’s possible they aren’t legitimate, it just also seems possible to me that it is legitimate. Club Penguin was insanely popular compared with POTCO and even Toontown. Numbers like that don’t seem insane to me comparing them with the numbers TLOPO brought in its “golden” period of growth. But I don’t know the legitimacy behind CPPS, other than they’ve been around a long time. A registered user would just be anyone that creates an account for a service. That’s how it is with TLOPO, I assume that’s the same with CPPS. In the end I personally don’t care all that much. Active users is of course a much better statistic to a game’s playerbase health as I’ve said before and they provide a decently believable one. Besides, there are much more active Club Penguin private servers although all of them are honestly pretty shady with how they’re run. Club Penguin private servers have existed since the game existed since it’s very easy to rip Flash Games and remake all the things that are needed.

 

[squintz]

I mean it’s possible they aren’t legitimate, it just also seems possible to me that it is legitimate. Club Penguin was insanely popular compared with POTCO and even Toontown. Numbers like that don’t seem insane to me comparing them with the numbers TLOPO brought in its “golden” period of growth. But I don’t know the legitimacy behind CPPS, other than they’ve been around a long time. A registered user would just be anyone that creates an account for a service. That’s how it is with TLOPO, I assume that’s the same with CPPS. In the end I personally don’t care all that much. Active users is of course a much better statistic to a game’s playerbase health as I’ve said before and they provide a decently believable one. Besides, there are much more active Club Penguin private servers although all of them are honestly pretty shady with how they’re run. Club Penguin private servers have existed since the game existed since it’s very easy to rip Flash Games and remake all the things that are needed.

So basically, we both agree that 'active user' (something that is difficult to prove as well) is the proper metric to distinguish and advertise a real game base, and the registered user is mostly puffed up unverifiable nonsense advertising. Like saying if you clicked someone's twit, you are now a twit user, even though that might have been totally unintentional.

And I just checked myself, and one has to log in - *register, to try to download the game. So, whether you're active or just didn't download after registering, you are now a 'user'. And one of hundred of thousands or millions of a meaningless metric.