Chris Phantomsteel
Buccaneer
A few first words
So a few days ago I decided to grind out a lvl4 copperhead war brig, and my first reaction was that is was really nice, since it can almost one-shot any ship that isn't a hunter or warship if there was an explosive round loaded. IF. Over the course of time I found the number of explosives to be ridiculously low, and since I have time today I decided to sacrifice around 2 hours to do some basic statistics study.
How did I do this?
I took my war brig, out to somewhere far from any other ships in order to fire broadsides as a test. I would stay away from other ships in order to clearly distinguish what rounds are explosives and what rounds aren't. See screenshot for example:
The rounds that went farer were normal ones, the one that landed less far is an explosive. Pretty self explanatory.
Afterwards I would take the statistics and put everything in a google excel sheet, which I will link at the end.
I didn't really bother to make a video as a proof, because it would take away way too much space for my computer. You'll just have to assume I'm not lying with the statistics. If you think I am lying, feel free and stop reading here.
First things to note
A war brig has 24 broadsides. Copperhead lvl4 supposedly gives you 5%. So that means that for every broadside, you should expect around 24*0.05=1.2 explosives.
The statistics
After going through 200 broadsides and noting down the number of explosives for each and every single broadside, my assumptions were quite true.
At a sample rate of 200, the average percentage of explosives was 2.29% and the average number of explosives was 0.535. Pretty astonishingly bad, but it was what I assumed before.
Here is a recap:
The sheet should be self explanatory, because only basic statistical calculations are made.
So why did you make different sample sizes? Because it can show me if my assumptions CAN be valid or not. At a small sample size, you can easily not get the percentage you're supposed to get. But as the sample size increases, the average still isn't near what it is supposed to be.
I also made sure that I was correct by making a chart that is visible. Until the sample size is around 50, the numbers aren't very stable, but that's normal. However, if the percentage was really 5%, this chart should be approaching 5 for the average percentage and 1.2 for the average number of explosives as the sample size increases. In this case, the chart stagnated at around the sample size of 75. At the sample size of 200, this was still similar. So it won't be approaching 5% even if I continue.
So, according to basic statistics, lvl4 Copperhead does NOT give you a 5% explosive chance for your broadsides. The bad thing is that the statistics that I had show that it's not even half of 5%.
So what am I trying to prove here?
With this, I want to show that something's not right. I'm not blaming anyone, but maybe it should be looked into by the developers because I honestly believe something is wrong here, especially with the numbers shown to me.
I might do this with a maxed out copperhead war brig again if I find a time to not do anything else that's useful in my life.
Please comment if you have any opinions/ideas on where I may have made a mistake.
Here is a link to the google docs to see exactly what I did: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SAbeHuKApFZIXG1Nc-mi1Nk1o-Fi0GmMMrQw0lkOh7c/edit?usp=sharing
So a few days ago I decided to grind out a lvl4 copperhead war brig, and my first reaction was that is was really nice, since it can almost one-shot any ship that isn't a hunter or warship if there was an explosive round loaded. IF. Over the course of time I found the number of explosives to be ridiculously low, and since I have time today I decided to sacrifice around 2 hours to do some basic statistics study.
How did I do this?
I took my war brig, out to somewhere far from any other ships in order to fire broadsides as a test. I would stay away from other ships in order to clearly distinguish what rounds are explosives and what rounds aren't. See screenshot for example:
The rounds that went farer were normal ones, the one that landed less far is an explosive. Pretty self explanatory.
Afterwards I would take the statistics and put everything in a google excel sheet, which I will link at the end.
I didn't really bother to make a video as a proof, because it would take away way too much space for my computer. You'll just have to assume I'm not lying with the statistics. If you think I am lying, feel free and stop reading here.
First things to note
A war brig has 24 broadsides. Copperhead lvl4 supposedly gives you 5%. So that means that for every broadside, you should expect around 24*0.05=1.2 explosives.
The statistics
After going through 200 broadsides and noting down the number of explosives for each and every single broadside, my assumptions were quite true.
At a sample rate of 200, the average percentage of explosives was 2.29% and the average number of explosives was 0.535. Pretty astonishingly bad, but it was what I assumed before.
Here is a recap:
The sheet should be self explanatory, because only basic statistical calculations are made.
So why did you make different sample sizes? Because it can show me if my assumptions CAN be valid or not. At a small sample size, you can easily not get the percentage you're supposed to get. But as the sample size increases, the average still isn't near what it is supposed to be.
I also made sure that I was correct by making a chart that is visible. Until the sample size is around 50, the numbers aren't very stable, but that's normal. However, if the percentage was really 5%, this chart should be approaching 5 for the average percentage and 1.2 for the average number of explosives as the sample size increases. In this case, the chart stagnated at around the sample size of 75. At the sample size of 200, this was still similar. So it won't be approaching 5% even if I continue.
So, according to basic statistics, lvl4 Copperhead does NOT give you a 5% explosive chance for your broadsides. The bad thing is that the statistics that I had show that it's not even half of 5%.
So what am I trying to prove here?
With this, I want to show that something's not right. I'm not blaming anyone, but maybe it should be looked into by the developers because I honestly believe something is wrong here, especially with the numbers shown to me.
I might do this with a maxed out copperhead war brig again if I find a time to not do anything else that's useful in my life.
Please comment if you have any opinions/ideas on where I may have made a mistake.
Here is a link to the google docs to see exactly what I did: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SAbeHuKApFZIXG1Nc-mi1Nk1o-Fi0GmMMrQw0lkOh7c/edit?usp=sharing
Last edited: